

*************     OPEN LOG FILE     ************

log using "E:\Zarit Project\Regional Convergence.Krause & Zarit.10-06-2015.SI IHS MODEL.CONTROLS.smcl" 



*************     DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC MODELS, I: OLS WITH NEWEY-WEST VCV ESTIMATION, WITH IHS FOR PC MODELS    ******************




******** OPEN DATABASE ****************

use "E:\Zarit Project\Regional Convergence.Krause & Zarit.06-08-2015.Master Database.dta", clear 


set more off


tsset state_fips year, yearly



preserve

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// (4,3)  MODEL



*** II.A: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***




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******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==0

estat ic

*

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if nonsouth==0, lag(8) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfull if nonsouth==0



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY) *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]






***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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// (4,3)  MODEL




*** II.B: SOUTHERN STATES (N = 14): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980)***


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******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0

estat ic

*

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & nonsouth==0, lag(6) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & nonsouth==0


 
* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENIETY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]



sum real_pc_inc_ann   if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & nonsouth==0, detail

*


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS  OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8860.249   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / -_b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4972.713

  
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restore 


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preserve







//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.A: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 -2010) ***

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******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if newsouth==1

estat ic

*

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if newsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfull if newsouth==1


 
* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]






***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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//(4,3)  MODEL




*** III.B: NEW SOUTH STATES (N = 5): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980) ***



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & newsouth==1

estat ic


******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********

newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & newsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & newsouth==1

 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0


* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 


* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]




sum real_pc_inc_ann   if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre !=. & year<=1980 & newsouth==1, detail


* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*9803.36   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*5533.502

  
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




//(4,3)  MODEL





restore 


******************************************************************************
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preserve




//(5,4) MODEL




*** IV.A: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): FULL TIME PERIOD (1942 - 2010) ***



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if oldsouth==1

estat ic


****** PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if oldsouth==1, lag(8) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallfullos if oldsouth==1



* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0 


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann 



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]



*


***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************




// (4,3)  MODEL




*** IV.B: OLD SOUTH STATES (N = 9): PRE-PARTISAN ALIGNMENT TIME PERIOD (1942 - 1980) ***



******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************

qui regress d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1

estat ic

*

******PARTISAN COMPETITION EQUATION*********


newey d.ihsklarnerranney  l.ihsklarnerranney l.real_pc_inc_ann l.d.ihsklarnerranney d.real_pc_inc_ann  l2.d.ihsklarnerranney  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann  l3.d.ihsklarnerranney l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann l.gov_party l.d.gov_party l.dem_unified l.d.dem_unified l.rep_unified l.d.rep_unified l.electedjudges1 l.d.electedjudges1 i.state_fips i.year if year <=1980 & oldsouth==1, lag(6) force

predict ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre if year<=1980 & oldsouth==1

 

* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION ERROR CORRECTION RATE *

test l.ihsklarnerranney = 0


* TESTING PARTISAN COMPETITION FOR COINTEGRATION VIA LONG-RUN COEFFICIENT JOINT EQUALITY WITH ZERO (WEAK EXOGENEITY)*

test l.ihsklarnerranney = l.real_pc_inc_ann = 0



* ESTIMATING CUMULATIVE SHORT-RUN EFFECTS FOR NON-LEFT-HAND SIDE VARIABLE *

lincom  d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l.d.real_pc_inc_ann +  l2.d.real_pc_inc_ann + 0



* TESTING FOR LONG-RUN MULTIPLIER EFFECT *

nlcom _b[l.real_pc_inc_ann]/-_b[l.ihsklarnerranney]



sum real_pc_inc_ann    if ihsklarnerranneyhatallpre!=. & year<=1980 & oldsouth==1, detail



* TOTAL/DYNAMIC MULTIPLIER & BASELINE LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF  real_pc_inc_ann ON ihsklarnerranney:  75TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann MINUS 25TH PERCENTILE VALUE OF real_pc_inc_ann FOR EFFECTIVE SAMPLE PERIOD 


nlcom  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*8432.818   -  (_b[l.real_pc_inc_ann] / - _b[l.ihsklarnerranney])*4643.055



***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
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***********************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************



restore



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log close
